Global Ganja Report

Over the past two years, the Latin American cannabis industry has "emerged from the shadows" to command the attention of international firms and investors. Legal cannabis sales within the region are on track to reach $125 million in 2018—but that figure is expected to rise to $12.7 billion by 2028.

As the UN General Assembly met in New York, President Trump issued a "Global Call" to renew the war on drugs—to the dismay of activists and dissenting nations. But the UN itself has a contradictory cannabis policy—with some agencies recognizing its efficacy as medicine and others backing the prohibitionist doctrine of the Single Convention treaty.

With the North American Free Trade Agreement under renegotiation, Mexico's former president and born-again cannabis advocate Vicente Fox is calling for the new treaty to include provisions for legal cross-border commerce in cannabis. But of course the federal governments of both the US and Mexico prohibit cannabis—despite growing demands for legalization both sides of the border.

In the surest sign yet of synergy between the cannabis and booze industries, one of North America's top brewers just dropped $4 billion into the continent's top legal cannabis cultivator. The move sent the cultirvator's stocks soaring—although not the brewer's.

In a fast and furious exchange of retaliatory tariffs, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping appear to have initiated a trade war this week. If Trump isn't careful, he could risk undermining the very domestic economic buoyancy that has helped sustain his popularity among his base. And the cannabis sector is particularly vulnerable, according to industry insiders.

The election of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador—known by his initials AMLO—as Mexico's next president is being hailed as historic, marking the first time a candidate of the left has had his victory honored. He is pledging a new, demilitarized approach to ending the endemic narco-violence. And his newly named interior minister is a vocal supporter of cannabis legalization. Will a day-lightened cannabis sector provide a way out of Mexico's long crisis?

With Canada now joining Uruguay as the second country to legalize cannabis at the national level, industry eyes are scanning the world map for which could be the likely third. Latin America may provide the candidate, as even UN experts now urge the region's governments to consider legalization as a way out of the endemic narco-violence. But pressure for legal cannabis is fast mounting in several European countries as well. Legalization may soon be on the legislative agenda in Australia, while New Zealand has promised to put the questions before the voters. 

Oakland-based cannabis industry research firm ArcView Group has released a new study, ambitiously entitled "The Road Map to a $57 Billion Worldwide Market." It provides a sweeping overview of recent progress and future prospects for legal or medical herb across the globe. But it also warns that, due to continued legal restrictions and bureaucratic overstretch, the market is in most areas bottlenecked from achieving its potential.