Global Ganja Report

Latin America is at the forefront of the global wave of cannabis law reform, according to a new report from a DC-based industry analyst. New Frontier Data sees a $9.8 billion market in the region, with big expansion potential for both exports and serving local consumption. 

Colombia is facing a strange contradiction—foreign capital is pouring in for the legalized cannabis sector, yet the new right-wing President Iván Duque is returning to the hardline "drug war" policies that the country has moved away from in recent years. This means not only a resumption of glyphosate spraying to wipe out illegal crops in the countryside, but an overturn of the former decriminalization policy. Street arrests for cannabis use and possession have soared since Duque issued his recrim decree.

Cannabis has become a global industry, but obviously it is still limited by legal restrictions—and the fact that these increasingly vary from country to country further complicates things. Where is commercial cannabis going and where is it coming from? And how is this likely to change as the international atmosphere further liberalizes?

Over the past two years, the Latin American cannabis industry has "emerged from the shadows" to command the attention of international firms and investors. Legal cannabis sales within the region are on track to reach $125 million in 2018—but that figure is expected to rise to $12.7 billion by 2028.

With Colombia's new conservative president threatening to roll back the country's ground-breaking decriminalization policy, a group of young activists in Bogotá held a public cannabis smoke-in to demand their right to the "personal dose." But, in what seems like a foreboding sign, it was quickly broken up by the feared National Police riot squad.

 
Since the right-wing Iván Duque was sworn in as Colombia's president last month, many have expressed fears that he will reverse the country's recent progress toward a more tolerant drug policy and de-escalation of its long crisis of nightmarish narco-violence. 

A verdict against glyphosate producer Monsanto in a case brought by a cancer sufferer has brought world attention to the dangers of pesticides and herbicides. This is a question with implications already felt in the cannabis industry—both legal and illegal.

With Canada now joining Uruguay as the second country to legalize cannabis at the national level, industry eyes are scanning the world map for which could be the likely third. Latin America may provide the candidate, as even UN experts now urge the region's governments to consider legalization as a way out of the endemic narco-violence. But pressure for legal cannabis is fast mounting in several European countries as well. Legalization may soon be on the legislative agenda in Australia, while New Zealand has promised to put the questions before the voters. 

With foreign capital pouring into Colombia's newly legalized cannabis sector, industry leaders foresee the country becoming the world leader in production and exports—a new "Saudi Arabia of cannabis." However, traditional peasant producers fear they will not have access to the legal market—but will continue to face repression and eradication. The newly formed National Coordinator of Coca, Poppy and Marijuana Cultivators is demanding a place for campesino producers in the new legal cannabis economy, and a halt to forced eradication efforts.